Agri Trends – 11 May 2018 – Grains, oilseeds and fibre

Export the maize in storage

There is less than five months of the annual marketing window left during which more sustainable price levels may be ensured for the following production year.  Producers should use the current selling opportunities until end of September to export maize in storage before the next USA corn crop will be harvested.  It is still possible to reduce this marketing’s year record amount of maize in storage from 4.2 million tons to 2.7 million tons by the end of April 2019.  It is still not a sufficient reduction in stock levels but it will contribute to the sustainable production of maize in the next production season.  A healthy cash flow qualifies for a sufficient production loan. Producers already commit themselves to export a significant portion of the old season crop in storage.

Highlights

 Grains

• Increased production estimates for old season maize crop.
• Maize deliveries will increase from mid-May. Storage may pose a challenge for already stocked up silos from the previous season’s carry over.
• Increased maize deliveries, harvest pressure and storage costs may add more pressure to maize prices from end May 2018.

Livestock

• The US market is entering its seasonally high demand period, which is expected to support prices in the short term.
• The lower feed price together with the lack of weaner calves to rebuild the national herd in the medium term may result in carcass prices to remain elevated for a long time period to come.
• Decline in available supplies after the weaner calf season may add a bullish tone to prices.
• Seasonally, we are moving into a colder winter period which is not supportive of outdoor grilling. This may weigh on demand prospects for beef, lamb and mutton. Demand for C grades normally improve during this time.

The current low prices of pork may increase consumer uptake of fresh pork cuts. The expected increase in sales may add support to prices

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