China unlikely to become self-sufficient

It is unlikely that the Chinese dairy industry will become self-sufficient any time soon. At a recent dairy conference in Melbourne, Mr Darryl Cardona, CEO of the United Dairy power Group (UDP) alleged that Chinese demand for dairy products may dry up within five years. However, when this was posted on the FAO Dairy Outlook website, various experts pointed out that the dream of Chinese self-sufficiency will probably remain just that.

Mr Luc Morelon, French director of IFCN and formerly with Lactalis pointed out that China will have to face many problems before they can become a significant milk producer. This viewpoint is shared by Prof Andrew Novakovic from Cornell University.

Chinese dairy imports continue to grow exponentially. In the first eight months of this year, China has imported 53% more skimmed milk powder and 65% more full-cream milk powder than during the same period last year. According to the IFCN Chinese self-sufficiency has decreased from 98% in 1996 to 81% in 2013 as demand growth outpaced production growth. This trend will continue.